Tesla managed to defy the odds in the second quarter of 2023, managing to tackle a ferocious slump in demand via aggressive price cuts. While the verdict is still vis-à-vis the impact of these discounts on the company's profit margin, the bristling 142 percent rally since the start of the year suggests that investors no longer remain mired in worry.
My $TSLA 2Q delivs est is 450K +77% YoY, +6.4% QoQ (Factset 445K, IR consensus 446.8K). With 2Q China delivs expected at 150K +9% QoQ in what is the world’s most competitive EV market, a 2Q +9% QoQ global number (~460K) isn’t out of the question.
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) June 30, 2023
Ahead of today's much-anticipated Q2 2023 delivery report, the consensus estimate (as per Factset) for Tesla's quarterly deliveries was pegged at 445,000 units.
Hi everybody. Here are my final Tesla production & delivery estimates for Q2 2023 in a format that's easy to compare to the actual numbers Tesla is expected to release on July 2nd. I'm aiming for less than a +/-3% error as usual.
Part 1/3 pic.twitter.com/vuUySGonmD
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) June 30, 2023
In line with Tesla's tradition of beating consensus estimates, Troy Teslike pegged a delivery estimate of 448,000 units for the quarter.
Tesla Produces 479,700 Vehicles in Q2 2023, and Delivers 466,140 Units
The $TSLA headlines will be no doubt “record deliveries” but there are some real concerns. Only 5% QoQ increase is underwhelming considering the huge government IRA subsidizes combined with numerous and continuous price cuts on all cars 2/
— Thomas Thornton (@TommyThornton) July 1, 2023
This brings us to the crux of the matter. Tesla has just reported that it produced 479,700 units during the second quarter of 2023. Moreover, in what constitutes another record, the company managed to deliver 466,140 units during the pertinent period. Bear in mind that Tesla had delivered 422,875 units in the first quarter of 2023. This means that the latest numbers constitute a sequential increase of over 10 percent.
Hi everybody. Based on my calculation, Tesla's order backlog was 59K units on June 19, down from 75K on May 31.
I've just posted a new update on Patreon: https://t.co/9Wuit0ONmn It'll be on Twitter in 2 weeks. It includes commentary about backlog, order rates, demand, and prices pic.twitter.com/Vp4bbMMC5k
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) July 1, 2023
At the end of Q1 2023, the company's Days of Finished Goods (FG) Inventory metric stood at 15.0, based on an inventory level of around 84,575 units and an average daily delivery rate of 5,638.33 vehicles (assuming 75 working days in a quarter). For Q2 2023, Tesla's Days of FG Inventory has marginally increased to 15.7, based on a new inventory level of 98,135 units and an average daily delivery rate of 6,215.2 (total deliveries of 466,140 units divided by 75 working days).
A significant portion of the recent rally in Tesla shares has been driven by the growing industry convergence on Tesla's NACS, which is set to become the dominant charging standard in North America after GM, Ford, Rivian, and Volvo communicated their willingness to adopt the standard from late 2024/2025 onward. As per a recent tabulation by Piper Sandler, the EV giant is set to earn $3 billion in revenue from non-Tesla owners by 2030 from the widespread adoption of NACS.
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